The US electric vehicle (EV) market experienced a notable slowdown in January 2026, continuing the post-incentive adjustment seen in late 2025. Industry forecasts from J.D. Power/GlobalData and other analysts indicate EV retail market share dropped to approximately 6.6%, down 2.9 percentage points from January 2025. With projected retail new-vehicle sales of around 908,500 units, this translates to roughly 60,000 EV units sold—significantly below the 102,243 EVs reported in January 2025.
This decline reflects the elimination of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit, reduced manufacturer incentives, higher transaction prices for EVs (averaging $51,981, up 18.1% YoY), and seasonal factors like winter weather impacting consumer demand.
Key January 2026 EV Sales Projections
- Total new-vehicle retail sales: 908,500 units (-3.7% YoY)
- EV retail share: 6.6% (down from ~9.5% in January 2025)
- Estimated EV units: ~60,000 (based on 6.6% of retail sales; some sources like S&P Global Mobility estimate BEV share closer to 5.3%, implying ~48,000–55,000 pure BEVs)
- PHEV share: 0.9% (down 1.3 pp YoY)
- Combined EV + PHEV share: Below 8% (vs. nearly 12% in January 2025)
Company-Wise EV Sales Insights for January 2026
Detailed brand-level data for January 2026 remains limited in early forecasts, as full monthly breakdowns from sources like Cox Automotive or Kelley Blue Book typically release later. Projections draw from late-2025 trends (Q4 2025 saw a 36% YoY drop in EV sales) and ongoing policy/economic headwinds. Tesla continues to dominate but faces pressure, while legacy automakers like GM and Ford show mixed results post-incentive era.
- Tesla — Projected to hold the largest share (~40–50% of EV sales, based on 2025 full-year 46.2% and Q4 trends). Estimated January units: 24,000–30,000 (reflecting seasonal slowdown and 15% YoY Q4 drop continuation). Tesla’s Model Y and Model 3 remain top sellers, though overall volumes are down amid competition and no incentives.
- General Motors (GM) — Includes Chevrolet, Cadillac, GMC. GM showed resilience in 2025 (+48% full-year to 169,887 units), but Q4 dropped sharply. January 2026 likely sees subdued volumes (~8,000–12,000 group total), with Chevrolet Equinox EV and Blazer EV contributing, though far below peak periods.
- Ford — EV sales declined in 2025 (-14.1% full-year to 84,113 units), with Q4 down 51.9%. January 2026 projections: ~5,000–8,000 units, led by Mustang Mach-E and F-150 Lightning, as Ford shifts focus toward hybrids amid profitability pressures.
- Rivian — 2025 full-year down 18.2% to ~42,000 units; Q4 down 31.3%. January likely low (~2,000–4,000 units), with R1T/R1S models facing demand softness without credits.
- Hyundai/Kia — Strong in 2025 (Hyundai +6.5%, but Q4 declines). Combined January estimate: ~6,000–9,000 units, driven by Ioniq 5/6 and EV6/EV9, though impacted by incentive loss.
- Other notable brands:
- Chevrolet (GM): ~4,000–6,000 (Equinox EV key driver)
- Cadillac (GM): ~2,000–3,000 (Lyriq, Escalade IQ)
- Volkswagen: Lower volumes post-2025 growth slowdown
- Lucid, BMW, Mercedes: Niche contributions, likely under 2,000 each
These are estimates derived from 2025 year-end data (total US EVs ~1.276 million, down 2% YoY) and January-specific forecasts emphasizing depressed demand. Actual figures may vary upon official releases from Cox Automotive or J.D. Power.
Broader Market Context
The January slowdown aligns with broader 2026 expectations: Cox Automotive projects full-year US new-vehicle sales at 15.8 million (down from 16.3 million in 2025), with EVs around 8% share as new affordable models (e.g., refreshed Chevrolet Bolt) and infrastructure improvements provide gradual support. However, high prices, economic caution, and policy shifts continue to favor ICE and hybrids in the near term.
At VFutureMedia.com, we provide in-depth analysis of EV trends, sales data, and sustainable mobility insights to guide informed decisions. Check back for updated actual January 2026 figures as reported by Cox Automotive, J.D. Power, and other authoritative sources.
Projections based on J.D. Power/GlobalData (January 23, 2026), Cox Automotive (Q4 2025 report & 2026 outlook), and related industry analyses as of early February 2026. Actual data pending final monthly reports.
Ethan Brooks covers the tech that’s reshaping how we move, work, and think — for VFuture Media. He was at CES 2026 in Las Vegas when the world got its first real look at humanoid robots, AI-powered vehicles, and Samsung’s tri-fold phone. He writes about AI, EVs, gadgets, and green tech every week. No hype. No filler. X · Facebook
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